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Theresa May with the EU27 leaders at the Salzburg summit
Theresa May with the EU27 leaders at the Salzburg summit. Photograph: Lisi Niesner/Reuters
Theresa May with the EU27 leaders at the Salzburg summit. Photograph: Lisi Niesner/Reuters

Chequered history: what EU summit fallout means for Brexit camps

This article is more than 5 years old

Here’s how critics may seek to capitalise on Theresa May’s humiliation in Salzburg

Theresa May came out to defend her Brexit strategy on Friday, demanding respect from the EU as her allies insisted that her post-Brexit proposals were still workable even after their rejection by EU leaders at Thursday’s Salzburg summit. Meanwhile, her critics seek to capitalise: whether to push the prime minister to ditch her Chequers proposals, call for a new referendum or demand the UK walks from the talks.

Here is what the summit fallout would mean for the Brexit camps.

May loyalists

The scenes in Salzburg would have sparked doubt in some. Loyalists who have been sceptical of the plan but ultimately sided with May, such as the environment secretary, Michael Gove, or the international trade secretary, Liam Fox, may start to worry that the humiliation the PM suffered at the summit would mean she was incapable of delivering any form of Brexit without significant further concessions to the EU that they would find impossible to stomach.

One of her closest allies James Brokenshire, the housing secretary, who served under May at the Home Office, was trusted to go out to bat for the broken plan on the morning media programmes, saying it was up to the EU to “engage with what’s on the table” rather than make sweeping criticisms.

Soft Brexiters

The Salzburg summit would have been in many ways the most worrying for the soft Brexiters in May’s cabinet, such as the chancellor, Philip Hammond, and the business secretary, Greg Clark, who had pushed hard for the common rulebook on goods in the face of tough opposition from cabinet colleagues.

The EU27 may have calculated that the UK could crumble and accept an EEA-style arrangement with a customs union that resolves the Irish border.

The concerns the soft Brexiters would have was that the EU’s hard-nosed approach would embolden cabinet colleagues like Fox or the home secretary, Sajid Javid, who would prefer to see a Canada-style free trade deal solution.

The EU has said that was unacceptable unless it involved Northern Ireland remaining in the customs union to avoid a hard border.

Worse, soft Brexiters would fear that the put-downs would also embolden some of their more kamikaze colleagues who would prefer to see no deal at all.

Rebels and ‘no deal’ Brexiters

May’s humiliation at the Salzburg summit could be the moment for the hard Brexit Tories. The former Brexit secretary David Davis was to publish his plan for a free-trade deal before this month’s Tory conference, which may act as a lightning rod for Chequers sceptics to coalesce around an alternative demand.

That route has some sympathisers in the cabinet, including Javid, the Commons leader, Andrea Leadsom, and the international development secretary, Penny Mordaunt.

Brexit: 'No deal is better than a bad deal' says Theresa May - video

The spectacle of May standing alone as EU leaders demolished her Brexit plan would also embolden that wing of the party, who have argued the EU has not negotiated in good faith and intended to push Britain into a position where it should be a “rule taker” in a single market and customs union.

For now, most prominent Brexiters have argued in favour of seeking a free trade deal but the calls could grow for May to tear up negotiations entirely and begin full preparation for a departure with no deal on the future relationship.

Labour leadership

May’s car crash summit in Salzburg could embolden Jeremy Corbyn ahead of the Labour conference in Liverpool – if Brexit was something that the leadership wanted to focus on, which it does not.

Labour has been facing its own internal battle with party members keen to push the leadership into calling for a new referendum on the final deal, a policy that many at the top of the party remain deeply sceptical about.

At worst, they believe endorsing such a move would help May with her parliamentary woe, because a threat of a second vote would persuade some rebel Tory Brexiters to side with the prime minister in parliament rather than risk another poll.

Another worry would be that if a no-deal scenario started to look like a very real alternative to any plan May could thrash out with the EU, how would the front bench keep their MPs disciplined to vote against her deal in parliament – when the alternative could be a cliff edge?

People’s Vote campaigners

The ‘continuity remain’ campaigners who would like to see a vote on the final Brexit deal would be hoping that May’s inability to strike a compromise both with the EU leaders and with her own backbenchers makes their plan for a second referendum the only route for the prime minister out of a looming crisis.

But over the past few days, May has again ruled out that option, with conviction, insisting it would incentivise the EU to offer the UK an unacceptable deal.

The chaos would galvanise their support base and perhaps win new converts to the cause, but the summit has done little materially to bring a second referendum closer to reality, when the prime minister and Labour leadership remain opposed.

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