How Poland views the Kremlin’s creeping aggression

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The technological revolution has enabled the spread of social communication. The flow of information in the media has grown so massive that information itself has become a tool of influence on both individual people and whole societies and nations.

Russia knows this well, and it is using this knowledge toward its aggressive goals. NATO members, and in particular the Central and Eastern European countries, have been at the gunpoint of Russian information campaigns for years.

The Kremlin has been mastering the use of information warfare for decades, and its proficiency in the field is growing. Hostile foreign influence, including the use of disinformation, is a growing concern for modern countries. In the near future, it will become a major threat to the national security of the West.

For Russia, disinformation and propaganda campaigns are just another foreign policy tool. This is even set forth in the official documents of the Russian state. Its whole apparatus, with special services at the forefront, is involved in these aggressive activities. Russian influence operations are intended to support the Kremlin’s imperial ambitions and political objectives, undermine NATO or EU members’ cooperation, to spread chaos and, as in the case of the attempted murder of Sergei Skripal, to distract people’s attention from the real picture of the Kremlin’s activities.

Such diversion operations have been used by Russia on a number of occasions, including the wars in Ukraine and in Syria, the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17, and the Smolensk tragedy of April 10, 2010, to name a few.

Sometimes, the Russians conduct mass information campaigns aimed at interfering with elections. Such meddling was observed during presidential elections in the U.S. and France, as well as during the British and Spanish referenda. On other occasions, Moscow will use provocative information operations, violate airspace, and hack computer systems in order to sow fear, test reaction, or destroy or steal data.

If the Kremlin deems it appropriate, it will not hesitate to launch kinetic operations, either. A couple of years ago, the Russians abducted an Estonian intelligence officer. Since 2014, they have been waging war on Ukraine, and just some months ago they attempted to murder Sergei Skripal on the territory of Great Britain. Influence operations are sometimes conducted in a covert manner, but quite often they receive an official political endorsement. This is exactly what happened in the “Lisa case” in Germany in 2016, in which Russia exploited fake news reports about a rape of a German girl of Russian origin. The choice of methods to influence other countries is big, which makes it hard to identify and neutralize the threats posed by Russian operations.

The range of measures employed by Russia is getting wider and wider. Therefore, to counter the Moscow’s activities, one must not only be able to identify the tools it uses, but also know the goals the Kremlin wants to achieve. At a strategic level, these goals remain the same. For Moscow, influencing other countries means building the position of Russia as a country that pulls the strings, impeding any initiatives it deems unfavorable, justifying Russian aggression in other countries, sowing panic and chaos where it serves the Kremlin’s interests, creating or deepening divisions between Western countries (in particular member states of NATO), and fabricating a positive picture of the history of Russia in order to legitimize the aggressive policy of the current authorities.

The effectiveness Russia’s influence operations depends on the exploitable vulnerabilities. Such vulnerabilities include the lack of effective security institutions, unregulated media, unresolved social conflicts, unsettled issues with neighboring countries, existence of radical groups, national minorities, and vulnerability to infiltration by intelligence services.

Moscow attempts to create or weaken already weak points in targeted countries. For example, it is highly likely that Russia has used the “yellow jacket” protests in France for its own purposes. Social unrest of this kind provides a perfect ground for a Russian operation against a targeted country. Therefore, having a full picture of weaknesses and preventing them from exploitation by the Kremlin is the sine qua non of a successful defense against a Russian attack.

Russia’s activities pose a serious and multidimensional threat to NATO member states, especially its continued interference in democratic elections and referenda in the West and its mass manipulation of the news media. Russian influence is more and more often aimed at influencing collective political decisions made by whole nations. By manipulating the voters, Russia seeks not only to affect the politics of a given country, but also to undermine trust in democracy itself. Thus, the Kremlin’s strategy is about striking a blow against democratic rule and the legitimacy of democratically elected authorities.

And as Russian propaganda makes it harder or even impossible for average citizens to learn the truth, public opinion becomes distrustful of the media and then gradually loses interest in public matters. Moscow wants to make European societies distrustful of anything they hear, because this makes them easier to manipulate.

Russia carries out its influence campaigns on a constant basis, including in Central and Eastern Europe. Take, for example, the recently concluded “Anakonda” military exercise in Poland, a regular major training event for the Polish Armed Forces with participation of other NATO members and structures. Russia tried to portray NATO as an aggressor that is seeking confrontation with Russia. The Kremlin threatened the Poles with consequences of developing closer ties with the U.S., suggesting that guarantees offered by NATO are empty and warning that Poland will be in Russian missile launchers’ sights.

The Russian propaganda toolkit for disseminating this message included fake interviews and manipulated articles and photos. With such activities, Russia is trying to intimidate Poles and to paralyze potential decisions on the enhancement of NATO allies’ presence in Central and Eastern Europe. Poland has become one of the most important targets of Russia’s state-funded information machinery. The Kremlin’s “favorite” topics to exploit are Polish-U.S. ties (in particular the cooperation of both countries in the energy sector), historical Polish policy, modernization of the army, and anti-NATO sentiments. On top of that, Russia attempts to bring Poland into disrepute by exploiting and escalating tensions between our country and our neighbors.

Hostile influence is a dangerous weapon that Russia has been using for years in order to meet its strategic goals in foreign and internal policy. Both Russia’s neighboring countries and those farther away have fallen victims to such influence. Given the current setting, the use of hybrid activities against other countries becomes an increasingly dangerous political phenomenon. The West must beware, lest it be defenseless against the Kremlin’s creeping aggression.

Stanisław Żaryn is a spokesman for Poland’s minister-special services coordinator.

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