Markets
Animation: The Biggest Economies in 2030
By 2030, the complexion of the global economy could look very different than it does today.
According to recent projections from Standard Chartered, a multinational bank headquartered in London, the next decade will see emerging markets like India and Turkey ascending the global economic ladder to become tomorrow’s powerhouses.
Visualizing the Boom in Emerging Markets
Today’s animation is based on a previous chart of the week we created that shows how economic growth is expected to unfold in the coming years.
View the projected change in rankings for the biggest economies from 2017 to 2030 below:
If the projections used in the above video prove to be accurate, the largest economy in 2030 will be China with $64.2 trillion in GDP after adjusting for purchasing power parity (PPP).
That’s nearly $20 trillion more than India, which will be the second largest by that time.
From Good to Great
While the sheer size of the Chinese economy is certainly an exclamation point, perhaps the more interesting story here is the ascent of developing markets in general.
By 2030, it’s projected that seven of the world’s 10 biggest economies will fall into that category:
Rank | Country | Proj. GDP (2030, PPP) | GDP (2017, PPP) | % change |
---|---|---|---|---|
#1 | China | $64.2 trillion | $23.2 trillion | +177% |
#2 | India | $46.3 trillion | $9.5 trillion | +387% |
#3 | United States | $31.0 trillion | $19.4 trillion | +60% |
#4 | Indonesia | $10.1 trillion | $3.2 trillion | +216% |
#5 | Turkey | $9.1 trillion | $2.2 trillion | +314% |
#6 | Brazil | $8.6 trillion | $3.2 trillion | +169% |
#7 | Egypt | $8.2 trillion | $1.2 trillion | +583% |
#8 | Russia | $7.9 trillion | $4.0 trillion | +98% |
#9 | Japan | $7.2 trillion | $5.4 trillion | +33% |
#10 | Germany | $6.9 trillion | $4.2 trillion | +64% |
Over this timeframe, countries like Egypt, China, India, Indonesia, Turkey, and Brazil will all see their economies expand with triple-digit growth in PPP terms.
In particular, India’s economy will be buoyed by rapid population growth in its cities, which are some of the fastest-growing urban areas on the planet. At the same time, Egypt’s economy is expected to grow from $1.2 trillion to $8.2 trillion according to the bank – although we would add that this seems quite optimistic.
Finally, developed economies like the United States, Germany, and Japan will keep growing – but just not at the blistering pace of developing countries. If these projections turn out, the Japanese and German economies will round out the list with the #9 and #10 spots, respectively.
Markets
Beyond Big Names: The Case for Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks
Small- and mid-cap stocks have historically outperformed large caps. What are the opportunities and risks to consider?
Beyond Big Names: The Case for Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks
Over the last 35 years, small- and mid-cap stocks have outperformed large caps, making them an attractive choice for investors.
According to data from Yahoo Finance, from February 1989 to February 2024, large-cap stocks returned +1,664% versus +2,062% for small caps and +3,176% for mid caps. Â
This graphic, sponsored by New York Life Investments, explores their return potential along with the risks to consider.
Higher Historical Returns
If you made a $100 investment in baskets of small-, mid-, and large-cap stocks in February 1989, what would each grouping be worth today?
Small Caps | Mid Caps | Large Caps | |
---|---|---|---|
Starting value (February 1989) | $100 | $100 | $100 |
Ending value (February 2024) | $2,162 | $3,276 | $1,764 |
Source: Yahoo Finance (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.
Mid caps delivered the strongest performance since 1989, generating 86% more than large caps.
This superior historical track record is likely the result of the unique position mid-cap companies find themselves in. Mid-cap firms have generally successfully navigated early stage growth and are typically well-funded relative to small caps. And yet they are more dynamic and nimble than large-cap companies, allowing them to respond quicker to the market cycle.
Small caps also outperformed over this timeframe. They earned 23% more than large caps.Â
Higher Volatility
However, higher historical returns of small- and mid-cap stocks came with increased risk. They both endured greater volatility than large caps.Â
Small Caps | Mid Caps | Large Caps | |
---|---|---|---|
Total Volatility | 18.9% | 17.4% | 14.8% |
Source: Yahoo Finance (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.
Small-cap companies are typically earlier in their life cycle and tend to have thinner financial cushions to withstand periods of loss relative to large caps. As a result, they are usually the most volatile group followed by mid caps. Large-cap companies, as more mature and established players, exhibit the most stability in their stock prices.
Investing in small caps and mid caps requires a higher risk tolerance to withstand their price swings. For investors with longer time horizons who are capable of enduring higher risk, current market pricing strengthens the case for stocks of smaller companies.
Attractive Valuations
Large-cap stocks have historically high valuations, with their forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) trading above their 10-year average, according to analysis conducted by FactSet.
Conversely, the forward P/E ratios of small- and mid-cap stocks seem to be presenting a compelling entry point.Â
Small Caps/Large Caps | Mid Caps/Large Caps | |
---|---|---|
Relative Forward P/E Ratios | 0.71 | 0.75 |
Discount | 29% | 25% |
Source: Yardeni Research (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.
Looking at both groups’ relative forward P/E ratios (small-cap P/E ratio divided by large-cap P/E ratio, and mid-cap P/E ratio divided by large-cap P/E ratio), small and mid caps are trading at their steepest discounts versus large caps since the early 2000s.
Discovering Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks
Growth-oriented investors looking to add equity exposure could consider incorporating small and mid caps into their portfolios.
With superior historical returns and relatively attractive valuations, small- and mid-cap stocks present a compelling opportunity for investors capable of tolerating greater volatility.
Explore more insights from New York Life Investments
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