Hello, dear readers!
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times …
Print book sales have never been better. At the same time, the supply and outlook for paper and printing has never been more challenging. I have updates on both in this issue. In the long run, expect price increases, which can already be seen in IngramSpark’s latest price hike for print-on-demand books.
Also in this issue: We attended the recent RWA town hall to hear from new and old board members on the challenges the organization faces.
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Hot Shots
Recently in the headlines
OverDrive reports 16 percent increase in digital lending
OverDrive, a leading distributor of digital materials to libraries, just announced that 2021 saw a 16 percent increase in lending of ebooks, audiobooks, and digital magazines. Moreover, libraries were able to achieve all-time records for circulation while lowering the average cost per title borrowed. One assumes that publishers’ more favorable terms during the pandemic have helped, plus libraries used the American Rescue Plan Act to obtain funds to expand their digital collections. An increasing number of digital access models, such as simultaneous use and cost per circulation, are also helping keep costs in line.
So, about that depressing Gallup poll on Americans reading less
Here at Hot Sheet, we’re always a bit skeptical of polls that focus on the health of reading. The latest one from Gallup claims that the average number of books read per year has fallen to 12.6 from 15.6 (in 2016) in the US. What’s responsible for the drop? Apparently, the same number of Americans are reading, but fewer Americans are reading more than 10 books per year.
Given that book buying was up in 2021 and book publishers haven’t seen a better year for sales, take these Gallup results with a big grain of salt. One industry vet we know said that a good headline for this Gallup poll would be “Americans continue to prioritize reading amidst challenging times.” More importantly, such polls may not capture subscription-based and online fiction reading through Kindle Unlimited or Wattpad. One must ask who is captured by this Gallup poll, which was conducted by telephone. The many, many BookTokkers? Young people? We wouldn’t worry about this—yet.
IngramSpark prices increase again for print-on-demand
The previous price increase was just a few months ago, on November 6, and it was a significant one: up 6 percent for US customers and 3 percent for UK/Australia. And that was on top of a 1 to 4 percent increase in March 2021.
Starting on March 8, 2022, IngramSpark prices will increase for US paperbacks (except premium paperbacks), most UK paperbacks and hardcovers, and most Australian paperbacks. Also, returns fees will move from $2 per unit to $3 per unit. (Ouch.)
IngramSpark didn’t mention how big the price increases will be, so we took a close look at their new pricing sheet. Here’s what we found for basic paperback POD printing starting at 200 pages, black and white.
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Nov. 6, 2021 pricing |
March 8, 2022 pricing |
| US paperback |
$4 |
$4.07 (+2%) |
| UK paperback |
£3.15 |
£3.34 (+6%) |
| Europe paperback |
€3.71 |
€3.93 (+6%) |
| Australian paperback |
$6.67 |
$7.07 (+6%) |
The current unit cost for a 200-page, black-and-white POD paperback through Amazon KDP (US) is $3.25. Here is the Amazon KDP calculator.
AWP may forgo an in-person conference in March
Currently, AWP is scheduled for March 23–26 in Philadelphia, but due to rising COVID cases, the organization is reconsidering its plans. (Note that AWP’s safety policy states that all attendees must be vaccinated.)
AWP had already planned for a simultaneous virtual version of the conference to complement the in-person event. This tweet from Jan. 14 is the last update we could find on the matter, which mainly asks everyone to be patient as it makes a final decision. Accepted panelists and attendees have started to remark on the lack of room and date assignments.
AWP hosts one of the largest annual writing events of the year. In pre-pandemic times, attendance was often 10,000 or more.
Book sales update
Sales are off to a slow and unfavorable start compared to 2021, falling 14 percent overall in terms of print units sold. However, adult fiction enjoyed gains versus last year’s figures, driven by two authors who are TikTok favorites: Colleen Hoover and Taylor Jenkins Reid. YA fiction also saw gains versus 2021, led by a new book by Alice Oseman, Heartstopper: Volume 4.
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IMHO: What motivated the book thief?
At some point in the last few years, you probably heard about a mysterious book thief who used a series of fake identities and phishing schemes to obtain manuscripts prior to publication. The New York Times and Vulture investigated who the person might be and their motivations, without coming to any meaningful conclusions. Despite successfully gaining access to high-profile work, the thief didn’t appear to be benefiting from his chicanery. There were no ransom notes or threats. The manuscripts weren’t leaked prior to publication. They weren’t sold off to the highest bidder or uploaded to Amazon.
Well, finally, the book thief has been identified and apprehended. Italian citizen and Simon & Schuster UK employee Filippo Bernardini, 29 years old, was arrested last week and charged with wire fraud and identity theft. (He’s currently out on bail.) In an email to staff, Simon & Schuster CEO Jonathan Karp said that parent company ViacomCBS’s security team provided the FBI with information, such as phishing emails, that led to the arrest. But Karp was not expecting a company employee to be the culprit. Even today no one is sure why Bernardini was engaging in this activity, and he hasn’t made a statement yet.
Among authors, there is a long history of concern that their work will be stolen or misused by the agents, editors, and other professionals entrusted with handling it. That concern is largely unwarranted, mainly because book publishing is not a lucrative industry and gaining access to a manuscript doesn’t equal profit. (I’m thinking here of the famous joke: Step 1: Steal unpublished manuscript. Step 2: ???? Step 3: Profit.) It is difficult to profit off any type of writing, especially when you’re not the legitimate owner of that work and have to hide your identity. Most fraud and negligence I observe in publishing happens right out in the open or is otherwise buried in the figures of a royalty statement or contract that authors don’t understand. Yes, there are serious book pirates out there, but they’re another matter and have nothing in common with this case.
At Vulture, Reeves Wiedeman wrote last year about the thief, “Was the pointlessness the point? The one thing that seemed to tie all these tiny acts of deception together was a sense that the thief was in it for the pleasure of the act itself. Whoever they were—a disgruntled scout, a basement full of hackers laughing to themselves—they cared enough to keep at it for years, devoting countless hours to sending endless emails—all seemingly for nothing.”
The comments on a recent Defector article about the book thief offered a range of plausible and humorous explanations for his motivations that I greatly enjoyed.
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“The answer is simple: He was living out a real-life mystery/crime novel, hoping someone may write his story one day.”
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“Given that he did this from the ages of 24–29, I’m guessing his motivation was that he’s a bro-dude with limited career prospects who thought he was smarter than his superiors in the publishing industry and set out to prove it. And, sure, it took them five whole years to figure it out. But they still have jobs, and he’s facing charges and maybe some jail time, possibly with the stipulation that he can’t sell his admittedly highly entertaining and very movie-ready story. But those publishing industry figures are probably already contacting screenwriters and talking to agents. So who’s the real genius here?”
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“Maybe he just got bored and was locked in his house.”
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“He gets one woman to fall for him by sending her an unreleased copy of some manuscript he’s looking over. Maybe this guy was just using it to pick up chicks?”
I’m going with that last bullet point. It would’ve worked on me when I was his age.
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“It’s Scary”: Publishers Face Tight Paper Market in 2022 and Beyond
Low supply and high demand for book-printing papers may lead publishers to increase prices
During summer and fall 2021, many industry alarms were sounded about supply-chain challenges and the possibility of a holiday sales crisis due to long printing turnaround times and shipping constraints. But whatever the problems might have been, book publishing still pulled through 2021 with print book sales up by nearly 9 percent, according to the latest figures from NPD BookScan.
But the supply-chain issues aren’t over yet—not by a longshot—not least because they pre-dated the pandemic. In a January 5 conversation hosted by the Book Industry Study Group, Bill Rojack of Midland Paper offered an update on primarily the domestic paper market for an audience of publishing professionals. While his comments were delivered with a can-do attitude and spirit of collaboration, he also did not sugarcoat the realities. Numerous times he repeated the phrase it’s scary in reference to paper market conditions.
There will not be enough paper capacity to meet demand for years. Rojack said, “I hate to be so dire about it, but it’s true.” He did qualify that statement by saying it’s important to look at specific market sectors—or types of paper—to understand where the pressures exist. As far as coated freesheet paper (often used for illustrated/color books), there simply aren’t enough paper mills and machines to meet demand in the foreseeable future, causing delays in pub dates. Your average novel is printed on uncoated freesheet, but that sector is seeing increased demand as the coated market downgrades to uncoated. And the uncoated paper market is losing manufacturing capacity with greater industry consolidation, with the possibility that paper mills will close even more paper machines.
While there’s more demand for book paper than ever, it remains a niche product. Book paper currently represents about 5 percent of the overall paper market, a percentage that has been increasing over time as demand dwindles in other sectors. However, Matt Baehr from the Book Manufacturers Institute commented that nobody is adding paper capacity because “no one is sitting there with a couple billion dollars, thinking, ‘My best return on investment is to open a book paper mill.’” Relative to some other papers, it’s expensive to make.
Another challenge is that private equity firms have bought up printing and paper manufacturing assets. Rojack said, “They don’t buy these assets to keep them the same. They’re trying to make more money on it and get rid of it. They may convert it or change the priority of the mill to get different grades. It’s scary. We don’t know if it’s going to happen. In the past five years, as private equity has gotten more involved in the paper business, it’s become a bit more unpredictable.” Unfortunately, paper profitability today often lies in converting mills over to packaging, such as Amazon boxes, or simply making more profitable grades of paper that aren’t used by book publishers.
Prices will go up, and publishers should seek partners, not discounts. Right now, pricing is 30 percent higher than it was two years ago. Rojack offered a clear and sobering wake-up call: “For all the publishers who are here [on this meeting], the paper mills right now are actually choosing their partners. And they’re not going to just choose them based on who they make the most money on. They’re looking at their futures,” Rojack said, “If you’re still talking price, you got a problem. You should be talking partners, not prices.” Does it mean publishers will have to increase book prices? That seems likely.
Bottom line: The consolidation and decline happening today in the paper market are dramatic and severe—and will be permanent, according to Rojack. So what’s the upside? Rojack said, “Our book business isn’t going anywhere. We’ve proven to the rest of the world that the printed product itself is superior. It’s here to stay.” But the publishing industry will have to consider how to better standardize and ultimately use fewer options for book paper. Rojack spoke of the opportunity to collaborate with paper manufacturers to come up with long-term, sustainable products and processes and to find solutions that work for everyone up and down the supply chain.
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2021 Ends on a High Note: Print Sales up by 9 Percent
Sales growth was driven primarily by backlist
Building on already impressive sales gains from 2020, US print book unit sales grew 9 percent last year, NPD BookScan reports—the highest ever tracked by the company, going back to 2004. It was also the first time annual volume rose above 800 million units. NPD says US book market trends are consistent with what they’re seeing in the broader retail market. (NPD tracks many markets, including apparel, beauty, consumer technology, homewares, toys, video games, and more.)
The big difference in 2021? Adult fiction was the key growth area. 2020 saw impressive sales gains particularly in the children’s market due to kids staying at home from school. While the children’s market did perform well in 2021, adult fiction did even better, growing by 11 percent. The category experienced the highest absolute unit gains for the year and contributed to more than half of total market gains. Top growth adult categories of the year: graphic novels, general fiction, romance, religion (nonfiction), and business.
Children’s print unit sales were up 5 percent, led by fiction. The only category to see a decline was nonfiction, but that’s because 2020 was such an incredible year it would be hard to beat again. Top growth subjects for children’s in 2021: comics and graphic novels, animals, holidays, social themes, and humorous stories.
Seasonal buying started early, and supply-chain issues did not dampen spending. Overall, the performance of the last quarter of 2021 exceeded the sales of the same period in both 2020 and 2019 due to early buying and a strong finish in December. Also, on a dollar basis, sales in 2021 were up 15 percent over 2020 due to higher average prices, fewer promotions, and higher costs that were passed on to consumers.
In the UK, book sales are also up. Nielsen reports that print unit sales jumped 5 percent—the highest volume of sales since 2011. “Books are not a pandemic fad,” Nielsen reported, noting that both fiction and nonfiction categories hit 10-year highs. Fiction sales were up 20 percent in 2021 compared to 2019. Similarly, Ireland reported that 2021 was its highest earning year for books since records have been kept.
In the US, nearly all 2021 sales growth came from backlist, reports Michael Cader of Publishers Lunch. Increased backlist sales go hand in hand with increased online sales. Cader writes (subscription required), “The top of the market seemed particularly weak in 2021, which stands in contrast to the strength in the rest of the market. In 2020, everyone understood that the biggest titles might have been held back by closed physical stores and reduced promotion. But the biggest bestsellers were actually far weaker in 2021: The top 10 titles on BookScan’s charts sold a combined 8.8 million copies, compared to 12.4 million units a year ago.” Furthermore, the top 100 titles comprised 5.3 percent of sales in 2021, compared to 6.5 percent in 2019. Only one adult title, American Marxism by Mark R. Levin, cracked 1 million copies.
Bottom line: In the US, overall sales in 2021 finished 19 percent ahead of 2019 on a unit basis. According to Kristen McLean, executive director and industry analyst at NPD Books, sales will remain strong in 2022 but are likely to fall below 2021. “Sales won’t fall off a cliff, but prepare for negative comps,” she writes. One of the big questions looming for publishers is whether the pandemic shift to online buying will stick. NPD thinks physical retail will remain vital. “After nearly two years of pandemic experimentation and implementation, physical book retailers are institutionalizing the best of what’s been working. … Physical bookselling will grow share overall in 2022.” And that dynamic is not limited to the US: The number of independent bookshops in the UK and Ireland has grown for the fifth consecutive year, according to UK’s Booksellers Association.
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Town Hall Addresses Fiscal and Cultural Health of the RWA
Facing financial instability and high turnover, the RWA board appeals to members for support
Late last year, the Romance Writers of America suffered another blow as multiple officers stepped down from the board, leaving the organization without a president and secretary. (We reported at length on the development in our Jan. 5 issue.) At RWA’s town hall meeting last week, a complement of new, existing, and former board members were on hand to offer an update and answer questions. Clair Brett is now president (with 1.5 days in her role at the time of the town hall) and Siera London is secretary.
Chapter and membership numbers have continued to decline in the last year. This, of course, has serious repercussions for the fiscal health of the organization.
- November 2019 membership: 8,792
- December 2020 membership: 5,169
- December 2021 membership: 3,765
Members frequently ask if RWA bankruptcy is on the way as membership continues to drop and regional chapters disaffiliate. (Here’s an example of a recent disaffiliation announcement.) RWA’s executive director, Leslie Scantlebury, who has been in the role since May 2020, said the organization is consulting with an outside professional on options to financially stabilize and no decision has been made.
In the event RWA files for bankruptcy, it’s possible that RWA chapters would be released from their affiliation agreements, but it would depend on the type of bankruptcy that RWA files for. This is an important point because, when a local chapter dissolves or disaffiliates, it’s required to turn over its net assets to the national organization. Some chapters with significant assets seem to be hoping that the national organization does in fact go belly up.
Brett, in her new role as president, asked for understanding and patience. “All on the board have a fiduciary duty to do what is best for the organization, but none of that happens overnight.” She might have been alluding to the fact that some members have called on RWA to allow for chapter disaffiliation without penalty, which would likely be the end of the national organization if permitted. Brett said that the RWA is not the only organization financially struggling, implying that the pandemic and various controversies have affected other major writing organizations. (She did not specify which ones.) She underlined that the problems RWA has now didn’t happen in one month in 2019. “There were things that have been going on for 10 to 20 years,” she said. “We all know, whenever there is change or improvement, it is never a smooth road.”
Does the membership really want RWA to continue? That existential question was at the heart of the meeting because member behavior has undercut the efforts of the RWA to make progress. LaQuette, who has been transparent about the personal reasons for her resignation, made an eloquent and frank speech near the end of the town hall as members insisted on explanations for why RWA can’t seem to keep leadership in place for very long and how the organization could ever be made sustainable.
Part of RWA’s problem, LaQuette said, is that members “just hate us.” Members keep attacking the board and doing so in public forums. “If RWA sneezes, people on social media lose their minds,” she said. That, of course, doesn’t make people want to stay in unpaid board roles; it is too stressful. And that’s on top of the fact many today are burned out and feel like the world is on fire. LaQuette said it’s a wonder that anyone at all remains on the board.
Because of the continual and public attacks, it’s hard to get help from those outside the organization. The reputation of RWA has probably never been at a lower point. However, LaQuette said, there are people and institutions who want to help—but they’re afraid they’ll be attacked. “Publishers see our members on social media talking trash about us, denigrating the organization. Do you think they really want to be attached to that?” She continued, “I’ve had a lot of pleasant conversations with publishers who are willing to work with us on the sly, meaning they will do things but not in a way that makes it seem like they are publicly supporting RWA. That’s good, but it’s also bad because then we can’t publicly show that we’re actually getting better, that people want to support us.”
Bottom line: The message from the board couldn’t have been clearer: To continue in any meaningful way, the RWA needs member support, and it must take care of its business in house rather than in public forums. Social media dynamics continue to damage RWA’s brand and its ability to do business or keep board members who can withstand the emotional toll it takes on their lives. RWA’s leadership made an urgent plea for member support: In the words of LaQuette, “The only way we’re going to get better is to do it together.”
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Trailblazes
Opportunities, launches, and startups
Harlequin subscription service launches
For $14.99 per month, Harlequin Plus offers subscribers access to movies, games, and books—with a choice of either an ebook bundle or a group of print books (six total) shipped to their home each month. In addition to the selected bundle, subscribers can read from an ebook library, with a collection of 10 to 15 new books every month. Harlequin has offered a book club for 50 years, and this new service acts as an extension of it.
This raises the question of how Harlequin authors will be paid for work available to subscribers. We touched base with two agents on the matter—Kristin Nelson and Ethan Ellenberg (founder of Royalty Reminder)—who have dealt with Harlequin contracts in the past, although not recently.
The first thing to know is that Harlequin has typically offered two types of contracts: series and standalone. A series contract is mostly a take-it-or-leave-it affair in which most rights are granted to the publisher. Harlequin would presumably have rights to make series titles available in a subscription service, and authors would be paid whatever royalty is specified in the contract. Harlequin also signs standalone titles under standard publishing contracts, where it may not have necessary rights to put titles in a subscription service.
Whatever the case, Ellenberg noted that all of these agreements have multiple royalty provisions for unique situations, but it can be unclear when they apply. Complicating matters, some agreements were signed many years ago and do not necessarily address current marketplace realities or instances of self-dealing. And lack of clarity leads to legal disputes. There was a big lawsuit not long ago over how Harlequin pays royalties on ebooks, so this is an area that authors and agents ought to watch closely.
Harvest: a new lifestyle imprint from HarperCollins
Harvest, which will be housed under the William Morrow group at HarperCollins, will focus on publishing nonfiction books in the food, health, and wellness space. Titles that were once published under Houghton Mifflin Harcourt (acquired by HarperCollins last year) will move to Harvest. Learn more.
Random House launches a children’s nonfiction imprint
Bright Matter Books, operating under Random House Children’s Books, will publish educational nonfiction, including reference, study guides, workbooks, and activity books, for ages three and up. Editors will focus on titles that play to marketplace trends; they will also gather input from parents, educators, and librarians. Learn more.
Paul Bogaards establishes a PR firm
Bogaards, who was a Knopf executive for 32 years, has launched Bogaards PR. His clients already include major authors, such as Robert Caro, Dani Shapiro, and the Joan Didion estate. In an email to colleagues, Bogaards describes the model for the new company as “a long runway business, not a quick-fix shop.” His email also revealed that he decided to leave Knopf on the day he was scheduled to attend a meeting about meetings.
RBmedia launches in German-language audiobook market
Years ago, RBmedia’s corporate parent acquired a major German audio publisher known as ABOD. Now it’s launching a new branded operation, RBmedia Verlag, using ABOD content. The press release from RBmedia notes, “We’ve been tracking the German-language digital audiobook market for some time and have seen consistent, sizable growth. We believe it represents a long-term growth opportunity for us. The marriage of ABOD and RBmedia combines a well-curated successful catalog with our skill and experience in growing audio businesses.” Learn more context about the announcement and audio market from Mark Williams at The New Publishing Standard.
Barnes & Noble’s Sterling Publishing will rebrand as Union Square & Co.
Barnes & Noble has long operated its own publishing division, known as Sterling. As part of a planned rebrand and expansion, it has been renamed Union Square & Co. The first comprehensive list will arrive in fall 2022 in both the adult and children’s market. Learn more in Publishers Weekly.
A new literary journal about the refugee experience
Helmed by a team of refugees and immigrants, The Other Side of Hope aims to challenge common perceptions of refugees in the UK and to chronicle the immigrant experience. It features nonfiction, fiction, and poetry, with the last two categories open to refugees, asylum seekers, and immigrants only.
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Links of Interest
Trends
Traditional Publishing
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Did publishers enjoy stellar sales in 2021 because library lending (for print) declined during the pandemic? Canadian publisher Kenneth Whyte pulls out stats from Gallup and Pew Research to show that the same amount of reading is happening even though book sales are way up. So how to reconcile these two trends? He thinks the answer lies in reduced library borrowing. No surprise: Librarians do not like him or his arguments. Read more at his Substack.
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Read a summary of all publishing mergers and acquisitions in 2021. The biggest one, between Penguin Random House and Simon & Schuster, is still up in the air. Read Jim Milliot in Publishers Weekly.
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Here are the top 25 overall print bestsellers in 2021. At the top of the list: Dav Pilkey. Only two titles last year reached 1 million units sold. Read John Maher in Publishers Weekly.
Culture & Politics
International
Marketing
Writer Beware
- Online copyright registration services can be exploitative. They prey on writers’ anxieties that their work will be stolen or plagiarized. Don’t be lured in. Read Victoria Strauss at Writer Beware.
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Closing image: NPD BookScan, which tracks US book sales, recently released an executive summary of 2021 results. Higher dollar earnings in March, April, and December were driven by increased share in hardcover book sales during those periods.
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Exclusive Authors Guild offer for Hot Sheet Subscribers: Save 35% when you join the Guild today. Since 1912, the Guild has been advocating for working writers at all levels of their careers. Use promo code HOTSHEET35.
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Copy editor: Nicole R. Klungle
Production coordinator: Mark F. Griffin
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