Institute for Economics & Peace

1.1 billion people live in 30 hotspot countries where societal resilience is unlikely to be sufficient to withstand the impact of their ecological threats. Ecological threats, such as rapid population growth, water risk, and food insecurity, are intensified by climate change. They compound fragility, driving displacement and exacerbating tensions over scarce resources. IEP research reveals that changes in a country’s ETR indicators also have a considerable impact upon both conflict onset and duration. A shift in score of 25% has the following impact: • Increasing food insecurity increased the risk of conflict by 36% • Increasing natural hazard exposure increased the risk of conflict by 21% • Increasing water risk increased the risk of conflict by 18% Resilience building will enable the countries to protect their population and infrastructures from ecological shocks and conduct robust social and economic recoveries in the aftermath. For more data and insights, read the Ecological Threat Report 2023. Download for free ⬇️ https://lnkd.in/gVnxQPN4

Apart from a surge in Israel and Palestine, terrorism has shifted from MENA to the Sahel within the last three years. The Sahel region accounted for 48% of total terrorism deaths globally in 2023, compared to 42% in 2022 and just 1% in 2007. Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, and Cameroon each saw death tolls increase by at least 33% over the past year. Even with decreases in deaths in Mali and Chad, total deaths in the Sahel were 38% higher than in 2022. Gain insights into the trends in terrorism since 2007 in the latest Global Terrorism Index 2024 report. https://lnkd.in/eUtbVYCv

As the world continues to grapple with conflicts of all kinds, from international disputes to domestic violence, peace studies have become an indispensable tool for resolution and prevention. From grassroots initiatives for conflict resolution to advocating for policy change, peace studies employ negotiation, dialogue, and mediation to help create peaceful solutions. 'It's almost hard to believe that this practical approach to understanding and addressing the root causes of conflict was once viewed as subversive and dangerous,' writes IEP's Darren Lewis. https://lnkd.in/gxwpPukW

Despite the common perception that #climatechange is directly linked to violent #armedconflict, the relationship is more complex. Climate change is often referred to as a ‘threat amplifier’, and whilst there is evidence to suggest that it makes conflicts worse, it is unlikely to cause them. Rather, the combination of seasonal and long-term climate changes, short-term ecological threats, a history of conflict, a lack of resilience and weak institutions leads to an increased risk of conflict. Here are some of the way you can contribute: • Enhance your understanding of the connection between ecological threats and armed conflict. Read the Ecological Threat Report: https://lnkd.in/gVnxQPN4 • Make choices to reduce your ecological impact & support sustainable practices • Advocate for policies and initiatives that address ecological threats & conflict prevention • Share this post to raise awareness about the urgent need for addressing ecological threats and building resilience.

#Conflict remains the primary driver of terrorist activity. Findings from the Global Terrorism Index 2024 report: ◾ Between 2007 and 2023, there were 145,376 terrorism deaths, with 98% occurring in countries experiencing conflict. ◾ The 16 countries most impacted by terrorism were all defined as being in conflict. ◾ The concentration of terrorism deaths in conflict zones has remained above 95% since 2015. ◾ Terror attacks in countries in conflict also tend to be deadlier than those committed outside conflict zones. ◾ Countries involved in conflict are more susceptible to terrorism in part because of the lack of a fully functioning state. Terrorism is also one of many tactics employed by insurgencies and paramilitaries in a civil conflict.

#Mali has become an increasingly prominent conflict zone over the past decade, as violence across the Sahel has increased, with more external actors becoming involved. The country saw a 154% increase in conflict-related deaths, including a nearly four-fold increase in deaths from violence targeting civilians. There were nearly 5,000 battlefield deaths in 2022. The current crisis is also fuelled by factors such as climate change, poor governance, terrorism, and conflict over natural resource extraction. The country ranks 153rd in the Global Peace Index 2023. Full report https://lnkd.in/gKQrGytA

Increasingly volatile attacks against the freedom of the media and falling trust in news sources persist, despite overall improvements in the Free Flow of Information. On this World Press Freedom Day, let's reflect on the vital role of a free press in fostering Positive Peace. https://lnkd.in/gHnHuFnR

Insights from the Global Terrorism Index 2024 reveal a strong correlation between peacefulness and terrorism levels worldwide. Countries with higher levels of peacefulness, as measured by the Global Peace Index (GPI), tend to experience lower levels of terrorism. The correlation holds true across both OECD and non-OECD countries. Promoting peace and addressing conflict is key to mitigate the risk of terrorism. Explore the properties of terrorism in the Global Terrorism Index report: https://lnkd.in/eUtbVYCv

Countries with a higher impact of #Terrorism tend to have higher levels of #OrganisedCrime. Findings from the Global Terrorism Index 2024 reveals a strong correlation between the impact of terrorism and the level of organised criminal activity. Criminal activity, the prevalence of criminal markets, human smuggling, arms trafficking, and the presence of established criminal networks all correlate significantly with the Global Terrorism Index. As terrorism remains a relatively rare form of violence, while organised crime is more widespread, the relationship between the two is somewhat one-sided. There are many countries with high levels of organised crime that experience no or very little impact of terrorism. However, in countries with a high impact of terrorism, there is almost always a significant organised criminal presence. 🗺️ The map below shows the geographic distribution of terrorism and organised crime.

Over 280 million people experienced acute hunger & were in need of urgent assistance in 2023, according to the Global Report on Food Crises 2024. #foodinsecurity While #FoodInsecurity can result from violence, conflict & political instability, it can also be a trigger to & stressor of social tensions, leading to further #conflict. IEP Ecological Threat Report reveals that a 25% rise in food insecurity increases the risk of conflict by 36%.