The true cost of empty offices

CITIES HAVE often bounced back from crises. From pandemics and earthquakes to floods and fires, the world’s urban powerhouses have emerged stronger when faced with adversity. After the Great Fire of London destroyed most of the city in 1666 a raft of fire-safety regulations were ushered in. Builders swapped timber for brick or stone. Walls were made thicker. Streets became wider. When cholera tore through America in the 1850s New York and other cities introduced sewage systems and public parks. As the disease spread to Paris, authorities there too introduced radical public-health measures. Tree-lined boulevards were built, fountains were erected and slums were cleared.

Today’s urban areas face a challenge of a different sort. With the mass return to office work still uncertain, the pandemic has sharpened debate about what the future holds for their commercial hubs. Key business districts such as Manhattan, the City of London, Tokyo’s Marunouchi and La Défense in Paris have borne the brunt of the office exodus. Before lockdowns the 21 largest business districts in the world housed 4.5m workers and around a fifth of the headquarters of Fortune Global 500 companies, according to EY and the Urban Land Institute. When covid-19 emptied offices around the world, most professional work shifted to home offices or kitchen tables. As the pandemic stretches into a third year, the fate of urban business districts remains unclear. Can they continue to attract investment and talent or will new work patterns jeopardise their commercial dominance?